Week in Review: A rough potato year ahead 

The potato reality is hitting in the run up to Thanksgiving and then Christmas and winter holiday entertaining season. 

Because of lower planted acreage and then historically low yields in Idaho, potato prices are expected to be much higher than usual from now until summer.

It’s even worse for larger sizes, which are prized by foodservice, where prices are more than three times what they were last year. Small Russet potatoes are still twice what they were last year. 

“No one anticipated that yield loss,” said Ryan Wahlen, sales manager of Pleasant Valley Potato, Inc. in Aberdeen, ID. “Usually, we will have better quality with a smaller crop, but this one lacks size. It will keep getting worse over time because they lose some weight in storage.” 

Other potato producing regions can pick up some of the slack, as USDA reports national volume is up 7 percent in early November over last year, but Idaho is down 16 percent. 

According to Markon Cooperative, Washington supplies are lighter than last year, but Colorado and Wisconsin are similar to last year. All three have good size range, but because large sizes are lighter from Idaho, demand is stronger on them, leading to higher prices.

Inflation 

The government’s monthly inflation report came out this week and showed overall prices rose 0.4 percent in October from September, slowing from 0.6 percent in September from August. But it was still higher than many expected. Because of a lapse in appropriations last October, annual increases aren’t available this month.

In food, prices rose 0.5 percent for the month. Fresh produce rose 1.1 percent, with fruit only rising 0.1 percent but vegetables rising 2.2 percent. 

The largest driver was lettuce, rising 9.5 percent for the month, as the market adjusts after the summer outbreak. Potatoes, interestingly, dropped 1.9 percent in October. 

But expect to see potatoes rise through the next six months. 

Unfortunately, there is no big potato lesson to be learned. Many Idaho growers lost money last year as input costs rose and demand didn’t always keep up with supply. 

Yield problems are hard to anticipate. 

Consumers may see fewer 10-pound bags in stores, but Idaho potatoes will still have a strong presence in the market despite the smaller crop. 

A new commercial from the Idaho Potato Commission shows that growers will keep their sense of humor about it.