ProduceIQ: Produce markets hit an uphill slalom

With Valentine’s Day in the rearview mirror, produce markets are entering a post-holiday transition.

Strawberry demand is beginning its customary seasonal decline as growers turn their attention to the forecast. Another round of rain is expected across the West, with inland California fields projected to receive 1 to 2 inches and up to an inch forecast for Yuma, AZ, adding fresh uncertainty to already strained supply conditions.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.20/pound, up +1.7 percent over prior week

Week #7, ending Feb 13^th  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Strawberry prices in Florida, $23, are about to descend from record highs

Against that backdrop, sweet corn is setting the tone. The Florida freeze battered the state’s winter sweet corn crop and left produce markets divided. Average prices are up +26 percent over the previous week and are forecasted to rise further. Supply is available out of Mexico, but elevated pricing reflects continued weakness in Eastern availability.

Sweet Corn in the East climbs quickly on the extended cold snap

Bell peppers are close behind. Like sweet corn, the recent freeze in Florida has left supply imbalanced, and, at a minimum, slowed picking and plant growth. Volume from Mexico is steady and easing supply tensions, but it is not enough to satisfy demand. Volatility is forecasted to persist through February.

Meanwhile, romaine and iceberg prices continue a historic climb. Both commodities are at a ten-year high by a significant margin. Inclement weather and resulting low yields jump-started the annual rise in lettuce prices. The seasonal decline in production in Yuma is just beginning and is forecast to worsen the current situation. Additionally, this week’s round of rain, coupled with above-average temperatures, will likely exacerbate quality issues and intensify disease/insect pressure.

Romaine prices spike earlier than in prior years, facing continued issues in supply

Rounding out the market, celery’s run shows no signs of slowing. Average prices, already at a ten-year high by a wide margin, rise another +15 percent over the previous week. Supplies remain tight on both coasts as cold damage in Florida and elevated temperatures in Yuma continue to constrain volume. With relief unlikely in the near term, supply is expected to stay lean, and prices elevated through February.

Celery prices continue to defy gravity, staying in record territory

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on movement and prices. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.