ProduceIQ: Weather shakes produce outlook

The Pacific Northwest heat wave is putting pressure on production markets as Fourth of July demand begins its annual sprint.

In the East, Tropical Storm Arthur soaked the Southeast, but its impacts will likely remain local. A silver lining, the storm is offering much-needed drought relief across portions of the Deep South.

As the U.S. men’s soccer team continues its winning form, produce buyers face a tougher matchup this week, with blueberry prices surging, cherry supplies poised to fade faster than usual, and cantaloupe markets remaining stubbornly tight.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.22/pound, up -2 percent over prior week

Week #25, ending June 19^th  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Average blueberry prices surge while supply wilts. Prices are up +24 percent over the previous week to a ten-year high as heat-related challenges plague growers on both coasts. Growers in Mexico are wrapping up early, and growers in the Pacific Northwest are not yet ready to pick up the slack. Supply should gradually increase over the next three weeks, but likely not enough to fully offset Fourth of July demand and ongoing production challenges. As a result, the heat wave in the Pacific Northwest may dampen hopes for meaningful mid-summer price relief.

Blueberries

A warmer-than-average spring squashed buyers’ hopes for another bumper cherry crop and is expected to significantly shorten the domestic season. While prices remain below average today, the abbreviated season could ultimately support stronger pricing and demand. That would mark a notable shift from recent years, when oversupplied markets pushed prices to historically low levels.

Cherries

Cantaloupe prices decline slightly but remain well above average in week #25. The offshore season has concluded, and domestic Western growers continue to battle disease pressure. While prices have eased modestly, the recent decline appears more like a temporary pause than the start of a broader downward trend. Tight supply conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of the month, keeping markets elevated despite recent improvements.

Cantaloupe

Average bell pepper prices rise, up +29 percent over the previous week. Despite transition-related challenges in the East, pepper prices remain slightly below average in week #25. However, tightening regional supplies and seasonal production shifts are likely to keep upward pressure on the market. Buyers may find themselves playing defense over the next three weeks as prices move higher, following a pattern similar to last season.

Bell peppers

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on movement and prices. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.