ProduceIQ: Pricing feast or famine

Produce markets are serving up a mixed bag this week. Roma lovers will wince at sticker shock, while broccoli stays perched on a stubborn ten-year high.

Idaho potatoes, on the other hand, are rolling in with bargain-ripe prices, and the Northwest’s orchards are brimming with apples poised for another record season. Call it a tale of feast and famine.

Despite wide discrepancies, the ProduceIQ index is on the decline. Average prices are down -7 percent over the previous week, led by notable decreases in the prices of heavily weighted commodities such as grapes, berries, and avocados.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.02/pound, -7.3 percent over prior week  

Week #37, ending Sep 12^th  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Pamela, tough news for your beloved and budget-friendly Roma tomatoes. This week, plum-type tomato prices are up +38 percent over the previous week due to a short supply. Rainy weather in Western Mexican growing regions, the U.S.’s +17 percent duty on Mexican tomato imports, and Mexico’s new minimum export mandate are all contributing to rising plum-type tomatoes. This trend will only ripen further as cooler fall weather shifts production back south.

Plum-type tomatoes jump to $19, entering season of historical volatility

Broccoli isn’t offering much relief either. Up another +12 percent over the previous week, average prices maintain a firm grip on a ten-year high for week #37. Substantial insect pressure, particularly from growers in the Salinas Valley, is reducing supply and fueling price increases. Volume from Mexico is also notably below the historical norm for week #37. In other words, broccoli is staying firmly in the “luxury” category for now.

Broccoli prices jump and threaten to continue climb

But Idaho potatoes are rolling in to balance the scales. With the new crop underway, average prices are down -4 percent over the previous week. Prices are well below average for week #37 and practically begging for promotion. Markets are forecast to stay soft through the year’s end, so expect plenty of spuds to go around.

Russet potato prices are downright cheap and need some buyer love

And finally, apples are stepping into the spotlight with a bumper crop. Domestic supply is teeing up for another strong year, with production forecasts rising for the third season in a row. The fall harvest is just beginning, but prices remain well below average for week #37. Markets will hold steady for the next two weeks before gradually softening as bins fill and fresh supply keeps piling in.

Fuji apple prices begin a climb, though remain relatively cheap compared to prior years

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.