What to Expect in the Year Ahead

Last year, 2025, was one of constant change and volatility. For many industries, including fresh produce, uncertainty loomed larger than ever, impacting nearly every facet of daily operations. As we embark on the new year, we reached out to leaders from across the industry for their take on 2025 and what to expect in 2026. Here’s what they had to say.

The Many Consequences of Tariffs

Uncertainty was indeed a buzzword for business in 2025–especially due to ever-changing tariffs. This was particularly top of mind in the first half of the year.

“The late winter and early spring were chaotic for everyone, with huge policy swings often changing daily,” recalls Andy Hamilton, CEO of Markon Cooperative, Inc. BB #:123315 in Salinas, CA.   

Jordan Grainger, vice president of sales and business development for Detroit, MI-based Ben B. Schwartz & Sons, Inc. BB #:104793, agrees, noting that for many, managing tariffs commanded resources from across the supply chain.

“This sidelined the innovation or transformative conversations that would normally take place,” he explains. “We think the tariff fluctuations we experienced this year will impact sourcing, both in relying more heavily on local growers and concentrating supply chains regionally.”

Although the trade turmoil calmed somewhat late in the year, economic uncertainty is still here and likely to extend well into 2026.

“One of the biggest challenges the industry will face in 2026 is the growing competition for the consumer’s produce dollar,” observes Jim Roberts, president of Naturipe Farms, LLC BB #:165382 in Salinas, CA. “Shoppers only have so much room in their already-tight budgets.”

“One of the biggest challenges the industry will face in 2026 is the growing competition for the consumer’s produce dollar.”

Carefully Embracing Produce

While budgets may be tighter and many consumers are making tradeoffs, shoppers are still sticking to a few tried-and-true favorites, highlighting wellness, and relying on time-saving products.

“In 2025, we saw real momentum in fresh produce, especially as more new customers found us while looking for trustworthy, high-quality options,” says Katie Macarelli, director of public relations for Natural Grocers BB #:188775 in Lakewood, CO.

She notes special promotions performed well, highlighting the competitive pricing of the store’s year-round organic offerings. “For 2026, we’re expecting to see shoppers gravitate toward quality and simplicity, especially in the produce aisle.”

“Fresh-cut expansion was the headline for us,” shares Andy Vargas, senior category manager for fruit with the Save Mart Companies BB #:113903 in Modesto, CA. “We saw real momentum from customers who want healthier eating, but don’t want a second job in the kitchen.”

Mike Veneziano, Save Mart’s vice president of produce and floral, adds, “We also made meaningful progress positioning organics for the next phase, including a reset that sets us up to expand with more intention in 2026, especially as shoppers become more value-conscious.

“We see the future as tailoring produce sets and storytelling to the actual community served—not a one-size-fits-all department,” Veneziano says.

He also believes convenience is still important to consumers. “Fresh-cut and prepared-in-store solutions aren’t add-ons or single-item shops anymore—they’re trending and becoming the bridge to healthier eating in busy households.”

“We see the future as tailoring produce sets and storytelling to the actual community served—not a one-size-fits-all department.”

Shifting Priorities

As consumers fought to save money without eschewing quality or convenience, they did change some of their buying behaviors in 2025 for both grocery shopping and dining out. This was true for producers and foodservice pros on the opposite side of the counter as well.

“We saw fewer trips, fewer impulse produce purchases, more deliberation. Customers are planning harder, cutting back where they can, and avoiding waste,” reports Veneziano. “When they do come in, they want the experience to be fast, fresh, and worth it.”

On the foodservice side,many segments returned to more stable operating patterns after years of disruption, according to Jin Ju Wilder, vice president of marketing and business development for Vesta Foodservice BB #:125924 in Los Angeles, CA.

“This stability allowed operators to plan menus, staffing, and procurement with more confidence,” she says. “Menu innovation rebounded, with chefs once again taking creative risks as traffic stabilized.”

Markon’s Hamilton concurs, though he notes a disparity in who’s driving the dining dollars. “Fast casual and fine dining both experienced strong years, buoyed by the unprecedented strength of high-income consumers in the K-shaped economy.” 

On the corporate side, Hamilton mentions more employees returning to onsite work. “This should bode well for restaurants and offices providing foodservice options, unless AI minimizes the number of people actually returning.”  

He also notes that operators facing tight labor pools and both higher wages and input costs are driving continued demand for time-saving produce solutions. “Demand continues to surge for prepped, washed, ready-to-use fresh produce, especially items that reduce back-of-house complexity.”

Luxury and On-the-Go Offerings

Even with a difficult economy, consumers still splurged in 2025. Some segments did better than others; berries, for one, performed quite well.

“Premium offerings and value-added items drove real momentum for the entire [berry] category,” confirms Roberts. He cites Naturipe’s Sweet Selections Blackberries as an example, which saw triple-digit sales growth. “Advancements in genetics and the continued development of new growing regions are pushing the category toward that next level of performance.”

Robert Schueller, director of public relations at Melissa’s/World Variety Produce, Inc. BB #:111686 in Los Angeles, CA, knows a thing or two about higher-end specialty items, which he calls “luxury produce.” He defines these items as difficult to grow or obtain, with exceptional taste and appearance, and higher price points, and considers this as a trend to watch for 2026.

One particular standout, according to Schueller, is new to the United States: Melissa’s Red Heart K-Grapes, grown in South Korea. Other items of note include Rubyglow and Pinkglow pineapples, which continue to entice consumers, as well as Jewelbox strawberries, Pink Elephant mangos, and Tasmanian cherries.

Consumers continue to embrace healthy on-the-go fruit and vegetable snacking options too. Bolthouse Fresh Foods BB #:394665 in Bakersfield, CA, scored a win with its holiday offering, Reindeer Carrot Sticks, and continues to hit a high note with its Carrot Shakers snack packs with savory seasonings.  

For Naturipe, recent successes include Three’s A Charm trio-packs of fresh blueberries, raspberries, and blackberries, kid-friendly Berry Buddies pairing berries with other healthy snacks, and Bentos, a line of berries and protein-rich items.

“It’s the right direction for the future, but it adds complexity that requires significant coordination, manpower, and investment.”

Reducing Waste and Sustainability

Food waste and reducing the use of plastics remain major challenges in the perishables industry. Both are sought by consumers, yet packagers and shippers continue to struggle with alternatives to plastic. Consumers may decry its use yet still value the convenience and protection plastic provides to fresh-cut and processed items.

With many federal standards tempered by changes, new state-mandated ‘extended producer responsibility’ or EPR laws are having an impact. “Navigating new EPR regulations around packaging is a big challenge for the entire industry,” says Naturipe’s Roberts, “especially as we work to innovate and stay compliant across multiple states and countries.”

He also mentions emissions reporting, which he says puts added pressure on companies to measure, track, and reduce emissions across their entire supply chain. “It’s the right direction for the future, but it adds complexity that requires significant coordination, manpower, and investment.”

One company lending a hand in the fight against food waste is Ryp Labs, based in Bothell, WA. Ryp Labs sells a shelf-life extension product called StixFresh, a plant-based coating applied to food labels, which can inhibit fungal growth by 40 percent or more.

“Customers who ship exotic, high-value products over long distances and can experience big losses really see the need and the potential.”

Moody Soliman, CEO and cofounder of Ryp Labs, says StixFresh has started taking hold in Latin America and Southeast Asia. “Customers who ship exotic, high-value products over long distances and can experience big losses really see the need and the potential.”

Of course, producers and sellers are sensitive to added costs, but Soliman sees StixFresh as a truly viable solution: Ryp Labs says the ROI of implementing StixFresh could be as much as $3 dollars in savings for every $1 dollar spent.

For others along the perishables supply chain, sustainability and food waste go hand in hand.

“The biggest shift we’re preparing for is the growing impact of climate-driven disruption, particularly wildfires, combined with the need for more flexible, regionally diversified supply chains,” shares Vesta’s Wilder.  

“Across our core markets, wildfires and/or extreme weather are no longer isolated events. They’ve become regular operational risks that affect harvest timing, field access, air quality, labor availability, transportation routes, and, in some cases, product quality.”

At the same time, she’s seeing compressed and unpredictable crop transitions. “Seasons are starting and ending earlier or later than expected, with less overlap than in the past,” Wilder says, noting abrupt crop transitions in 2025 led to wide price swings, especially in leafy greens, berries, and soft vegetables.

“Seasons are starting and ending earlier or later than expected, with less overlap than in the past.”

Transportation, Consolidation & Fraud

On the transportation and shipping side of the business, regulatory enforcement and consolidation are having an impact.  

“Several states have already begun tightening requirements around English proficiency and domicile compliance for drivers,” says Tim Hickey, business development manager for BM2 Freight Services, Inc. BB #:208411, headquartered in Covington, KY.

“If this expands at the federal level, the industry could see a meaningful reduction in available driver capacity—we’re already seeing some carriers adjust by reducing fleet size or exiting lanes based on what they expect is coming.”

For temperature-controlled produce, BM2 Freight continues to see stronger performance with full truckload compared to LTL (less-than-truckload). “While LTL has its place, the wider temperature variances and longer transit times introduce more risk for perishable commodities,” Hickey says.

“In many cases, shippers have found better results using smaller dedicated trucks or multi-pick and multi-drop strategies. Value-added loads have increased as shippers look to consolidate commodities and reduce overall truck count.

“At the same time,” Hickey adds, “compliance and identity verification technology have become a major focus for the industry. Fraud prevention is no longer optional. Investments in carrier validation and tracking have significantly improved load security, and these improvements have created a safer and more transparent environment for produce shippers.”

“Compliance and identity verification technology have become a major focus for the industry. Fraud prevention is no longer optional.”

Technology Advances and What’s Ahead

So what’s ahead for 2026? Will technology dominate the perishables conversation?

“We think we’ll see more technology disruption in 2026 and specifically leveraging data to make more informed purchasing decisions,” says Ben B. Schwartz’s Grainger.

“This year really battle-tested wholesale distributors with the changing policy around tariffs, which impacted sourcing and demand. While we can’t always anticipate every change, existing data is our greatest resource for future-proofing our business.”

And, of course, AI is top of mind. “Integrating AI into the foodservice category will remain at the forefront of how businesses operate,” says Hamilton. 

Grainger adds, “The companies that thrived this year were the ones already equipped to deal with change, having smart tech in place for order tracking, strong grower networks to source product without price hikes, and value-add services to support customers under budget and labor constraints. I think flexibility is key, and companies who aren’t as agile will struggle.”