Prices surge as storms batter growers in the West

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.14/pound, +15.2 percent over prior week  

The ProduceIQ BB #:368175 index is up +15 percent over the previous week, as a wide variety of Western-grown commodities are haunted by inclement weather and now face subsequent production gaps.

Much of the pressure stems from recent storms. Riding hot on the tails of Hurricane Priscilla, remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond are set to soak the Southwest today. Rain totals in some areas are forecasted to exceed monthly averages. Growers in Yuma, AZ, are hunkering down as they near the beginning of the winter production season. The rain system has the potential to delay the start of Yuma’s season, but we won’t know the extent of the damage until growers can assess it this week.

The damage isn’t limited to U.S. fields. Tropical Storm Raymond also drenched key growing regions in Mexico. Tropical Storm Raymond brought substantial rainfall to growers in Mexico over the weekend. Flash flooding from the storm has reportedly claimed over 40 lives and disrupted the production of a wide variety of commodities, including asparagus, grapes, beans, and cucumbers.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., Rain and heat bring a soggy end to the Salinas/Watsonville growing season. Broccoli, cauliflower, and romaine are among the most gruesome victims.

Broccoli prices are in truly unprecedented territory. Driven by rapidly declining yields from growers in the Salinas/Watsonville areas, average prices are up +64 percent over the previous week to an all-time high. Diamond-backed moths, aphids, and pin rot are suppressing yields. Supply will likely remain in a demand-exceeds-supply situation for the next few weeks as growers in Mexico, Santa Maria, CA, and Yuma, AZ, work to fill the gap.

Broccoli reaches unprecedented heights, surpassing the 2022 peak

Cauliflower prices are following closely behind their brassica cousin. Average prices are up +65 percent over the previous week, and although they aren’t breaking all-time records, broccoli prices are still at a ten-year high for week #41 by a considerable margin. However, relief may come a bit sooner for cauliflower as cooler weather boosts supply and eases supply woes.

Cauliflower shoots upwards with plenty of runway before reaching the highest outlier, 2022

Like cauliflower and broccoli, romaine supplies are under extreme pressure due to weather-related challenges. All lettuce and leaf commodities are on the upswing, but romaine prices are a standout. Average prices are up +76 percent over the previous week. As supply transitions to Yuma over the next few weeks, prices will likely continue to rise. Expect lighter weights and a shorter shelf life.

Romaine begins another steep vertical pattern

Squash is joining the list of weather-related casualties. The supply of yellow and zucchini squash is light in the East and the West. In a theatrical turn of events, average squash prices rose by +107 percent over the previous week, rising from $5 to $11. Mexican production is forecasted to ramp up next week and should provide some relief to volatile squash markets.

Squash is finally off the floor, providing some hope for struggling growers

ProduceIQ Index – The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.