Food inflation hurts, which is why it goes viral online 

We’ve had a ton of coverage about how consumers are frustrated by food inflation. 

A recent study showed that retail unit sales are falling in 2026 as consumers pull back on spending. 

Another study shows food prices are even affecting how consumers host summer barbeques, opting more for potluck.

The governments under both Presidents Biden and Trump have downplayed inflation, usually pointing to low monthly inflation, but as we’ve pointed out, consumers don’t think of it that way. 

It’s prices now vs. the “before time” because inflation is cumulative.

A social media post last week went viral, earning over 3 million views on X, telling a tale of comparing a Target grocery bill to one six years ago.  

“Jeremy” laments a 145 percent rise in item costs over six years, and says, “Not one member of Congress has looked at a grocery receipt in decades. And it shows.”

While many would agree with the sentiment of the last part, the first part is a little problematic. He didn’t post receipts, and 145 percent food inflation over six years doesn’t ring true. 

The Consumer Price Index has inflation over that period at 27 percent and food inflation at about 30 percent. 

Even if you don’t believe these numbers, which I’m skeptical of, it can easily feel like food inflation is about 50 percent from before the pandemic, which is still only one-third of the X poster’s claim. 

As an experiment, I asked Chat GPT to compare retail prices on a dozen grocery staples at Target and Walmart from February 2020 to July 2026, as in the X post, and it used archived prices from each of their websites. 

Here’s what I got: 

Walmart  

Total Basket Feb 2020 = $36.04 and Feb 2026 = $51.90

Difference $15.86 

Increase +44.0% 

Target  

Total Basket Feb 2020 = $38.35 and Feb 2026 = $54.45

Difference $16.10 

Increase +42.0% 

AI isn’t gospel, but 44 percent and 42 percent increases, respectively, seems much more realistic than 145 percent.

As for consumer pain, I can feel it with Jeremy, even if I don’t think his 145 percent is accurate. If we take a 50 percent increase over 6 years, that’s over 8 percent per year, which is way more than the Fed’s target rate of 2-3 percent per year.

It should have taken us about 20 years to get to a 50 percent rise.

I would like to have saved a receipt from February 2020 to compare to now, but if I knew then what I know now, a grocery receipt would be the least of my concerns. 

Food inflation is real and it’s bad, and consumers hate it, which is why retailers are working hard to lower costs and promote those savings.

But it’s a tough task for a low-margin business.