ProduceIQ: Growers dodge Polo’s worst, but produce markets stay spooky

Hurricane Polo’s fallout wasn’t as bad as expected in Western Mexico, giving growers some good news as we head into October.

Still, commodities, including melons, squash, and tomatoes, will feel short-term supply impacts, but the industry appears to have dodged the worst. Unfortunately for buyers, plenty of reasons remain to be spooked. Watermelon and squash supplies are tightening, while iceberg and green onions are pushing prices into record territory.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.30/pound, up +1.6 percent over prior week

Week #40, ending Oct 1^st  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Average iceberg prices are up +19 percent over the previous week and could climb further in the coming weeks. Intense disease and insect pressure are suppressing yields and pushing prices to record highs. If the momentum continues, this fall and early winter season could outpace 2022’s record-breaking run.

Iceberg Markets Continue to Hold Us Captive

Iceberg markets aren’t the only commodity scaring buyers in Week #40; green onion prices are at a ten-year high by a wide margin. Extremely low yields, driven by heavy rain and unseasonable heat in Mexican growing regions, are pushing green onion prices into unprecedented territory. Average prices will likely rise over the next few weeks as fall production ramps up, but the market should see some relief by late October or early November.

Green Onions Reach a Ten-Year High

Watermelon prices are up +14 percent over the previous week as seasonal transition and Hurricane Polo strain supply. Domestic production is waning, with the market leaning more heavily on imports. Supply may remain slightly strained over the next two weeks but should steadily improve by mid-October as the fall transition wraps up.

Watermelon Prices Rise as Supply Tightens

Low yellow squash supply is keeping average prices toward the higher end of the historical range. Production in Georgia is winding down, and growers in Florida won’t be ready to pick up production for a few more weeks. Prices are likely to remain elevated and markets volatile over the next few weeks.

Squash Prices Stay Elevated

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on movement and prices. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.