ProduceIQ: A berry frightening fall for produce buyers

Produce markets are gettin’ spooky. California’s shift from October heat to rain is adding pressure to already-stressed Golden State commodities, while freight rates remain well above year-ago levels.

Tight tomato supply persists, watermelon prices have hit a ten-year high, and green onions are still haunting buyers with highs of their own.

With supply disruptions lingering and relief arriving on its own schedule, suppliers and buyers have plenty to keep them busy heading into the holiday season.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.42/pound, up +7 percent over prior week

Week #43, ending Oct 23^rd  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Strawberry prices jumped +30 percent week over week. Prices often climb in fall and early winter as domestic production winds down ahead of the holidays. Heat followed by rain is accelerating the decline in California strawberry production, and prices are responding.

Strawberry Prices Jump +30 Percent

Tomato supplies remain extremely limited across the board. Average prices are up +23 percent for round-type tomatoes, +9 percent for grape-type tomatoes and +17 percent for plum-type tomatoes week over week. Tight supplies and strong demand are likely to keep prices elevated over the next two weeks, until growers in South Georgia and Florida can ramp up production.

Tomato Supplies Remain Extremely Limited

Week #43 watermelon prices hit a ten-year high as domestic production wanes and bad weather continues to slow Mexican growers’ ramp-up. The transition from domestic to Mexican production has been slower than expected, leaving supplies tight. Relief could be close, with suppliers expecting Mexican production to rebound any day.

Watermelon Prices Hit a Ten-Year High

Green onion prices are coming back down but remain well above average. Quality remains fair as growers continue to battle insect pressure and sizing issues. Mexican production remains historically low for Week #43, but supplies are expected to rise steadily over the next few weeks.

Green Onion Prices Are Coming Back Down

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on movement and prices. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.