USDA projects record ag trade deficit to expand in 2025

USDA forecasts agricultural exports at $170 billion in 2025 and imports at $215.5 billion, according to a November report, Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

This represents a revision from its August forecast, as exports increased by $500 million and exports by $3.5 billion.

The deficit would be $45.5 billion, up from August’s projected $42.5 billion. It was already forecast to be the largest ag deficit in history. The deficit was $31.8 billion in 2024 and $17.2 billion in 2023. The U.S. had ag surpluses in 2022 and 2021.

U.S. ag exports have declined each year since 2022, including projections for 2025.

USDA projects total fresh fruit and vegetable exports to be $7.7 billion in 2025, up slightly from $7.669 billion in 2024. Total fresh fruit and vegetable imports are forecast at $35.6 billion, up from $32.353 billion in 2024.

Fresh fruits and vegetables are in the horticultural products category, and its export projections rose $200 million from the August forecast to $41.7 billion. Fresh fruit and vegetables are up $100 million to $7.7 billion, based on gains to top markets, Canada and Mexico. Whole and processed tree nuts are unchanged at $9.9 billion, with most shipments destined for Europe and Asia.

With U.S. agricultural imports, the largest component of the horticultural category is fresh fruits, which decreased by $200 million from the August forecast to $20.1 billion. USDA says fresh fruit import values dropped due to the expectation of declining unit values relative to 2024.

Weather issues in South America and drought in Mexico contributed to higher unit values in 2024, but improving conditions, as well as relatively strong domestic production, are expected to ease unit values for 2025.

Fresh vegetable imports were unchanged at $13.5 billion in 2025, leaving the forecast 5 percent higher than 2024. These increases from 2024 are partially based on expectations of improved growing conditions in Mexico, the largest import supplier.

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