ProduceIQ: Not even Taco Bell saw this coming

Taco Bell leading the charge to prevent diarrhea is the irony our Monday needed. We’ve heard that post-Taco Bell stomach discomfort is simply part of the culinary experience, but Cyclospora undeniably takes things to a whole new level.

The voluntary recalls, on lettuce products distributed to more than 27 states, have sent ripples through leafy green markets, just as California production has recovering supply. U.S. health officials have waivered regarding the source, admitting to false positives, and continuing the investigation.

The ProduceIQ Index, based on prices per pound, typically declines this week as cherry season winds down.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.08/pound, down -18 percent over prior week

Week #29, ending July 17^th  

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

Elsewhere, the headlines remain just as busy. Tropical activity is beginning to stir in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, while ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to ripple through global energy and freight markets.

From fuel prices to transportation costs—and ultimately the cost of fresh produce—events well beyond the field continue to shape the produce industry alongside the usual seasonal supply shifts.

Fortunately for buyers, not all this week’s market news points higher. Lettuce prices are retreating as California production ramps up, melon supplies are finally improving after weeks of record high prices, and strong strawberry production is bringing welcome relief to buyers despite ongoing weather challenges.

Down another -10 percent over the previous week, iceberg prices return to bargain levels. Romaine markets also continued their dive, with average prices down -16 percent over the previous week. Improving California production is boosting supplies, while the Cyclospora news cycle may be temporarily dampening demand. Together, those factors are putting downward pressure on both markets.

Iceberg continued to descend into floor-level bargain prices

Relief is finally arriving for cantaloupe and honeydew buyers. After weeks of record-breaking prices, California cantaloupe production is increasing and putting downward pressure on prices. Consistent honeydew supplies are still a few weeks away; however, markets will likely ease as production ramps up in the coming weeks.

Cantaloupe prices, still elevated, fall into the seasonal range

Strong California production continues to offset heat-and humidity-related challenges in strawberry-growing regions. Average strawberry prices are down -20 percent over the previous week and could decline further if supplies remain stable. Even after this week’s drop, prices remain elevated compared to historical averages, reminding buyers that supplies have improved but have yet to fully normalize.

Strawberry prices are at a seasonal low as supply increases

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ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on movement and prices. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.