FMI report projects continued online grocery growth

ARLINGTON, VA, April 22, 2026 — FMI–The Food Industry Association BB #:162464 and NielsenIQ, a leading consumer intelligence company, find that grocery shopping is no longer a choice between store and screen, but instead a seamless blend of both in the latest Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026 report.

With omnichannel behaviors as the new normal, total U.S. online grocery sales will reach $452 billion by 2028, making ecommerce a primary engine of grocery progress.

The report finds that ecommerce now drives nearly three-quarters of total grocery dollar growth. In 2025 alone, online sales contributed close to 75% of total grocery dollar growth, while in-store sales remained relatively stable.

“Ecommerce is poised for extensive growth,” said Jack O’Leary, director of ecommerce strategic insights for NIQ. “With online grocery sales increasing at a projected 11.6% annual rate through 2028 and already accounting for about one-fifth of total grocery spending, success now hinges on how well retailers connect digital and physical experiences into one cohesive journey.”

Food represents one of the largest opportunities for category expansion within ecommerce. While food purchases remain primarily store-led, online food sales jumped nearly 19% in 2025. The report finds that without ecommerce, many grocery categories would post flat or declining sales, reinforcing the role of digital as a competitive lever rather than a complementary add-on.

“Omnichannel shopping is now the norm for most households,” said Steve Markenson, vice president, research & insights for FMI. “Nearly 94% of grocery shoppers in 2025 purchased both online and in-store, blending digital discovery, fulfillment and store visits based on needs, timing and convenience.”

“As online grocery continues to scale, fulfillment and speed have become critical points of competitive differentiation. Average delivery times have fallen sharply since 2018 and shoppers increasingly expect same-day or next-day delivery, especially for food,” said Doug Baker, vice president of industry relations for FMI. “Shoppers place a premium on frictionless execution across the entire shopper journey. From the digital shelf and shoppable content to fulfillment speed and the in-store experience, food retailers that offer seamless, enjoyable experiences will provide shoppers value and build loyalty.”

Looking ahead, the research points to the next phase of digital evolution. While still early, advances in artificial intelligence (AI), including agentic tools that support planning, discovery and low-consideration purchasing, have the potential to further reshape how shoppers engage with grocery. The report advises food retailers and suppliers to prepare now as these technologies mature.

Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026 is part of an ongoing FMI and NIQ research series examining omnichannel growth, ecommerce performance and emerging technology across the grocery industry.

FAQs

What is the Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026 report?

The report examines how omnichannel shopping behaviors, ecommerce performance, and emerging technologies are reshaping the U.S. grocery industry.

Who conducted the research behind the report?
The report was developed by FMI–The Food Industry Association in collaboration with NIQ, combining industry expertise and consumer intelligence.

What does the report reveal about online grocery sales growth?
The findings show that online grocery now drives nearly three‑quarters of total grocery dollar growth, with U.S. ecommerce sales projected to reach $452 billion by 2028.

Why is omnichannel strategy critical for the grocery industry?
Nearly 94% of grocery shoppers purchase both online and in‑store, making integrated omnichannel experiences essential to growth, convenience and loyalty.

About NIQ

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action.

With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world’s population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full View™—helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next.  

For more information, please visit www.niq.com.

About FMI

As the food industry association, FMI works with and on behalf of the entire industry to advance a safer, healthier and more efficient consumer food supply chain. FMI brings together a wide range of members across the value chain — from retailers that sell to consumers, to producers that supply food and other products, as well as the wide variety of companies providing critical services — to amplify the collective work of the industry. www.FMI.org