Florida citrus projected at century-low levels

USDA’s December Florida citrus forecast puts the crop at levels that haven’t been this low in 100 years.

Orange production was lowered by 20 percent and grapefruit by 14 percent from the October forecast, which takes into account the damage from Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida in early October.

The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, down 20 percent from the October forecast of 15.0 million. If realized, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

The forecast for Florida grapefruit production is 1.20 million boxes, down 200,000 boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. Red grapefruit, at 1.05 million boxes, is lowered 150,000 boxes from the October forecast. White grapefruit is forecast down 50,000 boxes to 150,000 boxes.

Florida citrus production has been dropping for years due to various causes, including weather, disease, changing consumption, and residential and commercial property demand.

According to USDA, there were 248,000 acres of oranges in 2024, down from 665,000 in 2000, and grapefruit acreage amounted to 14,000 in 2024, down from 118,000 in 2000.

Florida’s citrus industry peaked in the 1997-98 season with 244 million boxes of oranges. This year’s orange crop would be 5 percent of the peak.

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